The Federal Reserve (Fed), the American system of central banks, considers the chance that the US economy will end up in a recession in the medium term smaller. This appears from the minutes of the last Fed meeting in December.

At the last meeting, the system of central banks decided to leave interest rates unchanged after three consecutive cuts in interest rates. As a result, the bandwidth of the interest remained at 1.5 to 1.75 percent. The Federal Reserve does not expect the interest rate to change in 2020 either.

Further lowering of interest rates is not necessary, according to the Fed, because the US economy is showing “resilience” despite ongoing trade conflicts and the slowing global economy. The Fed is referring to, among other things, better-than-expected job reports and the stable growth of the US economy.

Moreover, the rise in long-term interest rates on capital markets in recent months suggests that the “likelihood of a recession in the medium term has decreased noticeably,” according to the Fed minutes.

However, increasing the bandwidth of interest is not yet an option, as the inflation target of 2 percent is not yet in sight. “We still don’t understand why it is so difficult to raise inflation again,” said Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve in the city of San Francisco on Friday.

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